Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2831
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
G4 2831 · SFB → ELM
departs 8:30 AM ET · arrives 11:02 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ELM more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.4d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at ELM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELM?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFB
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↓
ELM usually runs smoothly
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SFB (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.15 in
ELM (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0.2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.