Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2844 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

G4 2844 · LEX → SFB

departs 4:58 PM ET · arrives 6:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±3 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFB?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFB at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFB

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LEX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,167 ft Visibility5.33333 mi Precip0.02 in

SFB (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2844 · LEX → SFB

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFB?