Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2853
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
G4 2853 · SFB → SWF
departs 3:11 PM ET · arrives 5:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SWF more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SWF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at SWF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SWF?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFB
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SWF
Weather at each end
SFB (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
SWF (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.