Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2906
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
G4 2906 · MDT → SFB
departs 7:59 PM ET · arrives 10:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±2 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave MDT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SFB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SFB?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at SFB that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SFB at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDT
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDT (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFB (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.