Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2959
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
G4 2959 · SFB → SBN
departs 2:54 PM ET · arrives 5:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SBN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBN?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFB
↑
Other factors
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
SBN usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFB (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.15 in
SBN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.