Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 3011 LANDED 3:12 PM ET, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

G4 3011 · SRQ → SYR

took off 12:39 PM ET · landed 3:12 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at SYR more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at SRQ that day

↑ 12pm departures from SRQ are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SYR

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SRQ (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SYR (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 3011 · SRQ → SYR

Odds over time