Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 3870
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
G4 3870 · ATW → SNA
departs 7:30 AM CT · arrives 10:05 AM PT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave ATW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
Saturdays in October are usually busier than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATW
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
Weather at each end
ATW (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.