Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 438
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
G4 438 · VPS → DSM
departs 5:31 PM CT · arrives 7:51 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave VPS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at DSM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DSM?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at VPS that day
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
VPS usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DSM
Weather at each end
VPS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.18 in
DSM (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.