Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 847
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
G4 847 · SBN → PGD
departs 10:05 AM ET · arrives 12:51 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PGD more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PGD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at PGD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PGD?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at PGD that day
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBN
Weather at each end
SBN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PGD (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.