Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 912 LANDED 3:46 PM ET, ~1 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

G4 912 · TOL → PGD

took off 1:24 PM ET · landed 3:46 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at PGD more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at PGD that day

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TOL

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TOL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PGD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 912 · TOL → PGD

Odds over time