Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 955 LANDED 5:07 PM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

G4 955 · PGD → SDF

took off 3:18 PM ET · landed 5:07 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at PGD that day

↑ 3pm departures from PGD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PGD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

SDF (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 955 · PGD → SDF

Odds over time