Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 986 LANDED 4:38 PM ET, ~14 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

G4 986 · BGR → PIE

took off 1:19 PM ET · landed 4:38 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at PIE more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at PIE that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Visibility down to 0.75 mi forecast at BGR that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BGR (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility0.75 mi Precipnone

PIE (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 986 · BGR → PIE

Odds over time