Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3417
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3417 · DFW → BHM
departs 4:39 PM CT · arrives 6:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±3 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at BHM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to BHM?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
4pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BHM usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.52 in
BHM (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,467 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.