Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3425 LANDED 5:58 PM CT, ~23 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

MQ 3425 · EVV → ORD

took off 4:55 PM CT · landed 5:58 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

EVV (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3425 · EVV → ORD

Odds over time