Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3433
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3433 · BIS → DFW
departs 1:55 PM CT · arrives 4:38 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 47%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.7d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave BIS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Gusts to 29 kt forecast at BIS that day
Weather at each end
BIS (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.26 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.