Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3445
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3445 · MLI → ORD
departs 6:08 AM CT · arrives 7:30 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Thu 10/1 13%
Fri 10/2 12%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave MLI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
MLI (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.