Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3451
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3451 · DFW → CHA
departs 8:40 AM CT · arrives 11:47 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at CHA more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±3 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CHA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at CHA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to CHA?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at CHA that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into CHA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.77 in
CHA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.