Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3474 LANDED 6:36 AM CT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

MQ 3474 · CWA → ORD

took off 5:52 AM CT · landed 6:36 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ MQ's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

CWA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3474 · CWA → ORD

Odds over time