Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3491
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3491 · ORD → CWA
departs 8:05 AM CT · arrives 9:26 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 17%
Thu 10/8 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at CWA more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CWA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at CWA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CWA?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CWA
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CWA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.