MQ 3502 · LRD → DFW

took off 3:55 PM CT · expected to land 4:54 PM CT (scheduled 3:53 PM CT → 5:30 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ LRD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LRD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.04 in

DFW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3502 · LRD → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?