Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3503
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3503 · ECP → DFW
departs 10:06 AM CT · arrives 12:23 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 71%
Fri 10/2 46%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±7 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave ECP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at ECP that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Other factors
↓
10am departures from ECP are usually not late
Weather at each end
ECP (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.53 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.