MQ 3513 · DFW → FSM

departs 8:28 AM CT · arrives 9:47 AM CT

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FSM?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into FSM at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

FSM (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,233 ft Visibility4.83333 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3513 · DFW → FSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to FSM?