Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3516
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3516 · DFW → MFE
departs 11:28 AM CT · arrives 1:04 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2 53%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 13%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at MFE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MFE?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at MFE that day
↑
11am departures from DFW are often late
↓
MFE is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.35 in
MFE (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.59 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.