Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3516
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3516 · MFE → DFW
departs 1:43 PM CT · arrives 3:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 15%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave MFE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at MFE that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↓
MFE usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MFE (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.59 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.