Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3524 LANDED 7:06 AM CT, ~29 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

MQ 3524 · YYZ → ORD

took off 6:44 AM EDT · landed 7:06 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ YYZ is busy at that time

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

ORD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3524 · YYZ → ORD

Odds over time