MQ 3527 · PHX → MRY

departs 10:23 AM MT · arrives 12:33 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at MRY more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MRY?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
12%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.1 mi forecast at MRY that day

↑ 10am departures from PHX are often late

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MRY (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3527 · PHX → MRY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MRY?