Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3544
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3544 · ORD → DFW
departs 7:14 PM CT · arrives 9:56 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 21%
Thu 10/8 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±5 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
7pm departures from ORD are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.77 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.