Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3583
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
MQ 3583 · DFW → IAH
departs 2:33 PM CT · arrives 3:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 19%
Fri 10/9 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±2 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.7d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
2pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into IAH at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.26 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.