Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3615 LANDED 12:00 AM ET, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

MQ 3615 · ORD → BGR

took off 9:04 PM CT · landed 12:00 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BGR more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ BGR usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BGR (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility0.75 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3615 · ORD → BGR

Odds over time