Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3621
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
MQ 3621 · DFW → LEX
departs 1:55 PM CT · arrives 5:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 13%
Fri 10/9 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at LEX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LEX?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
1pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
LEX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.25 in
LEX (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.