Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3641
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3641 · LIT → DFW
departs 7:31 AM CT · arrives 9:12 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 85%
Fri 10/2 48%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 14%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±3 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave LIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at LIT that day
↓
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
LIT (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2.66667 mi Precip 0.08 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.