Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3645
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3645 · LSE → ORD
departs 5:41 PM CT · arrives 7:22 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave LSE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
LSE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LSE (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.