Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3649
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
MQ 3649 · LSE → ORD
departs 12:01 PM CT · arrives 1:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 7%
Fri 10/9 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave LSE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
LSE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LSE (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.