Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3693
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
MQ 3693 · DFW → XNA
departs 10:30 PM CT · arrives 11:47 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 13%
Fri 10/9 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±0 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
29%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.1d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
10pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.25 in
XNA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 9.66667 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.