Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3774 LANDED 12:36 AM CT, ~3 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

MQ 3774 · ORD → ATW

took off 12:01 AM CT · landed 12:36 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 21h after departure

Arrive at ATW more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ ATW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATW (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3774 · ORD → ATW

Odds over time