Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3777
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3777 · DFW → SAT
departs 2:45 PM CT · arrives 3:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 40%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 11%
Thu 10/8 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±3 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at SAT that day
↑
2pm departures from DFW are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.52 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.