Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3777
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3777 · SAT → DFW
departs 4:25 PM CT · arrives 5:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 79%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 19%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±4 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
8%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SAT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.22 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.