Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3785
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3785 · ABE → ORD
departs 5:11 PM ET · arrives 6:44 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 68%
Fri 10/2 28%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 27%
Wed 10/7 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave ABE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
ORD is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ABE
Weather at each end
ABE (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.