Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3789
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3789 · ICT → DFW
departs 9:36 AM CT · arrives 11:04 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 84%
Fri 10/2 42%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave ICT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ICT
Weather at each end
ICT (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.