Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3791
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3791 · SDF → DFW
departs 1:18 PM ET · arrives 2:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 85%
Fri 10/2 46%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.