Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3801
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3801 · SGF → DFW
departs 9:30 AM CT · arrives 11:11 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 64%
Fri 10/2 39%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SGF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
SGF is prone to delays
↓
9am departures from SGF are usually not late
Weather at each end
SGF (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.05 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.