Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3809 IN THE AIR (OFF 2:47 PM CT, ETA 3:31 PM MT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Today

MQ 3809 · CID → PHX

took off 2:47 PM CT · expected to land 3:31 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Gusts to 30 kt forecast at PHX that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CID

Weather at each end

CID (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3809 · CID → PHX

Odds over time