MQ 3821 · TUL → DFW

departs 5:04 AM CT · arrives 6:15 AM CT

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ MQ's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from TUL are usually not late

Weather at each end

TUL (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.27 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3821 · TUL → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?