Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3867
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3867 · JAN → DFW
departs 7:00 AM CT · arrives 8:50 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 74%
Fri 10/2 38%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±5 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave JAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
JAN is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from JAN are usually not late
Weather at each end
JAN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.72 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.52 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.