Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3872
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3872 · ELP → ORD
departs 6:49 AM MT · arrives 11:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Fri 10/2 8%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ELP is prone to delays
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from ELP are usually not late
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.