Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3879
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3879 · MEM → PHX
departs 8:00 AM CT · arrives 9:28 AM MT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Fri 10/2 11%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at MEM that day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
MEM is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
This flight has been late 9% of the time recently
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.22 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.