Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3904
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3904 · LFT → DFW
departs 8:03 PM CT · arrives 9:41 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave LFT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at LFT that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
LFT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LFT (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.60 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.