Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3908
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3908 · RAP → ORD
departs 12:41 PM MT · arrives 4:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Fri 10/2 20%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 26%
Wed 10/7 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±4 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave RAP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Gusts to 35 kt forecast at RAP that day
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RAP (origin)
Gusts 35 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.