Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3924
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3924 · MSO → DFW
departs 6:45 AM MT · arrives 11:09 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 63%
Fri 10/2 31%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MSO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
MSO is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSO
Weather at each end
MSO (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.