Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3937
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3937 · DFW → BIL
departs 9:15 PM CT · arrives 11:13 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 34%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at BIL more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BIL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at BIL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BIL?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
9pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BIL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.52 in
BIL (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.